{"retrospective":{"generated_at":"2026-09-01T14:55:52.208361+00:00","model_version":"v1-s113","threshold":50,"band_edges":{"approval_likely":70,"inconclusive":40},"graded_population":{"success":61,"negative":15,"pending":27,"superseded_refiles_excluded":0},"eras":{"trailblazer":"outcomes before 2024-08-01 — the multi-year BTC/ETH first waves, resolved before any approved baseline existed","spot_era":"2024-08-01 to 2025-09-17","generic_standards_era":"outcomes from 2025-09-17 (per-fund 19b-4 retired; includes the structural withdrawal wave of the transition)"},"horizons":{"30":{"n":72,"accuracy_pct":80.6,"always_approve_accuracy_pct":80.6,"skill_vs_always_approve_pts":0.0,"bands":{"approval_likely":{"n":32,"success":31},"inconclusive":{"n":21,"success":19},"withdrawal_risk":{"n":19,"success":8}},"eras":{"trailblazer":{"n":19,"correct":14},"spot_era":{"n":4,"correct":4},"generic_standards_era":{"n":49,"correct":40}},"success_median":72,"negative_median":16,"separation_gap":56},"90":{"n":66,"accuracy_pct":72.7,"always_approve_accuracy_pct":78.8,"skill_vs_always_approve_pts":-6.1,"bands":{"approval_likely":{"n":8,"success":7},"inconclusive":{"n":40,"success":37},"withdrawal_risk":{"n":18,"success":8}},"eras":{"trailblazer":{"n":17,"correct":11},"spot_era":{"n":4,"correct":4},"generic_standards_era":{"n":45,"correct":33}},"success_median":55,"negative_median":10,"separation_gap":45},"180":{"n":51,"accuracy_pct":68.6,"always_approve_accuracy_pct":74.5,"skill_vs_always_approve_pts":-5.9,"bands":{"approval_likely":{"n":1,"success":1},"inconclusive":{"n":37,"success":29},"withdrawal_risk":{"n":13,"success":8}},"eras":{"trailblazer":{"n":12,"correct":6},"spot_era":{"n":4,"correct":4},"generic_standards_era":{"n":35,"correct":25}},"success_median":55,"negative_median":55,"separation_gap":0}},"methodology_note":"Point-in-time reconstruction: each issuer scored using only information available N days before its outcome, with the issuer excluded from its own baselines (leave-one-out). Filing-derived signals only; the Approval Likelihood Score is a heuristic pattern benchmark, not a probability or prediction. Success = reached exchange trading; withdrawals superseded by a same-sponsor re-file are excluded and counted above."},"prospective":{"collecting_since":"2026-06-02","days_collected":93,"ciks_tracked":16,"resolved_since_collection":7,"bands":{"approval_likely":{"n":3,"success":3},"inconclusive":{"n":1,"success":1},"withdrawal_risk":{"n":3,"success":0}},"lead_time_days_median":35,"note":"Scores frozen daily before outcomes are known — this layer cannot be reconstructed or revised. Sample grows as pending issuers resolve."},"disclaimer":"The Approval Likelihood Score is a heuristic filing-pattern benchmark, not a probability, prediction, or investment advice."}